How to Calculate Clean Sheet Probability Using Set-Piece xGC
Set-piece goals decide more Premier League matches than most tipsters admit, and they distort clean sheet pricing in a predictable direction. If you build your football predictions on total expected goals conceded (xGC), you are blending two very different defensive skills: open-play structure and dead-ball marking. Splitting set-piece xGC out of the total gives you a cleaner read on which teams are genuinely likely to keep a clean sheet, and which are only one corner away from ruining your bet. Why Set-Piece xGC Beats Total xGC for Clean Sheet Modelling…
Lea más